Himalaya Ice Rock Avalanche Causes Deadly Damage; Urgent Need of International Early Warning System

Part of a glacier collapse high in the Himalayas on August 26, triggering the mudslides and floodings along the Nepal-Tibet border are believed to be an “ice-rock avalanche” or “glacial avalanche,” and there is a growing view that global warming is a possible factor behind the avalanche. The damage is also widespread. Dr. Santosh Kumar Rauniyar, Senior Research Fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s Ocean Policy Research Institute, who is originally from Nepal and specializes in analyzing data on natural disasters related to glaciers and oceans, argues that there is an urgent need to establish a system to monitor and detect dangerous glaciers crossing national borders, thereby enabling early warning.
 
On August 26, a glacier collapse in the upper reaches of the Langtang Valley, north of Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, triggered mudslides and floodings. According to figures released by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) based on data from Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), 1,356 people had died and approximately 4,900 were missing as of September 7. The death toll is likely to rise.
 
With Nepal and China in mind, Dr. Rauniyar noted, “From either countries or ministries, there is no institutional mechanism and initiation for data sharing [with experts].” He emphasized the need for an early warning system, stating that if a system had been in place to detect ice-rock avalanche or large-scale mudslides and floods and issue early warnings to urge people along the river to evacuate, “that could have reduced the disaster.”
 
“Climate Justice, which we talk about at the United Nation’s process, has to be practically now tested.”
 
Dr. Rauniyar expressed the following hope for the international community’s future response. “Climate Justice" is the concept that developed countries—which have emitted large amounts of carbon dioxide and contributed to global warming—should share responsibility fairly and support developing countries and socially vulnerable groups that have suffered damage from disasters caused by climate change. Nepali Prime Minister Balendra Shah reportedly, plans to call on member states to take measures against climate change at the UN General Assembly in late September.
 
Regarding the cause of this glacier collapse, experts are suggesting that global warming may have been a trigger. According to Dr. Rauniyar, there had been a total of three major floods in the watershed where this ice-rock avalanche occurred since June 2025. This is due to the fact that permafrost is receding in the Himalayan mountainous region as a result of global warming. The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD, headquartered in Kathmandu) states that glaciers in this region could lose 30 to 80 percent of their current volume by 2100, pointing to glacial melt caused by global warming. He stated, “I think the hazard frequency will increase, if we don’t do anything” and warned that there are concerns that similar disasters could occur in other countries, such as Bangladesh, which faces the same watershed.
 
Dr. Rauniyar also noted that we should brace for secondary damage. He explained that if sediment released by the ice-rock collapse continues to accumulate in rivers, it could affect the ecosystem. He also pointed out that if the ground containing the coal seam collapses and mixes with sediment as it flows downstream, the damage could spread to neighboring farmland.
 
According to an announcement by Chinese authorities, on August 26, a glacier collapsed from a mountainside on the Nepalese side at an elevation of approximately 5,200 meters, sweeping rocks and other debris with it as it cascaded down. About six to seven minutes after the collapse, it reached the border checkpoint in Gyirong County, Tibet Autonomous Region, located approximately 22 kilometers away. Rescue operations are still underway in the affected area.
  
Author: Mizuki Okada, a senior officer at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation