Interview with Commodore Peter Olive, Head of Futures and Strategic Analysis at the Defence, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC)

You can also see that as well in our world that is both more interconnected than it has ever been but also more fragmented. Cooperation and confrontation are happening in parallel. We see incredible innovation in the last few years, including the response to the pandemic and the amazing work done by scientists who rolled out vaccines. We can see that in terms of incredible space technologies, and humankind might be on the cusp of colonizing the moon. Yet in other parts of the planet, we see stagnation and reversals. Trends that we had assumed in terms of indexes of human empowerment, betterment, and economic development and health, are starting to reverse.
 
We see growing authoritarianism at a moment where things are more transparent than they've ever been. Both weakening and strengthening of the abilities of states to exert governance whether that be in areas of what we traditionally understand as fragile or at risk, but also in the more developed economies in terms of the expansion of technologies into areas of traditional state governance and the ownership of those technologies not necessarily lying in the hands of states. Real drivers in different directions, this is another feature that we will be highlighted in this edition.
 
Nishida san: Based on your analysis, what are the trends that you expect to be most relevant to Japan?
 
Commodore Olive: There are four major trends we think will be important to Japan. The first is the one we've already mentioned is demographic changes. Japan is leading the world in terms of an aging population and getting to a point of population growth no longer being the norm, and all that means in terms of economic models and other areas. What that then means in terms of other trends sort of focusing on technology, robotics, and other areas necessary to fill the gaps in workforces and what it means to economic models. I think that’s going to be an interesting and significant challenge to navigate in the future.
 
The second is climate environmental pressures. The Indo-Pacific region writ large is in many ways most affected by climate change. Japan is a modern, successful, and powerful country and is managing those transitions very successfully. However, the Pacific islands are increasingly under stress, with some now having to move populations and consider technology as a way to preserve their cultural heritage if the geography can no longer sustain it.
 
Then we have the transitions in terms of economy. The region as a whole is hugely vibrant and will be the fastest growing region in terms of GDP, and yet there will be different variations in that model across the region. A lot of that has been driven by the emerging powers. For stable and developed powers, it’ll be a different approach.
 
Finally, great power competition and global power competition. We all appreciate the military dimension, which is on playing out around us both in Europe but also in this region, but there will be economic implications in terms of the divergence of value chains and economic models. There will also be discussions more around shared ideas and shared approaches, or what some call “values and norms.” Many countries in the region will have to balance those different aspects and we will have to see how different powers seek to manage that in terms of alignment or balancing or establishing their own positions. We could see many new and different dynamics appearing over the next 30 years.