Interview with Brigadier Ewen Murchison, the Head of Futures and Strategic Analysis for the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre

Mr. Nishida: Can you tell us about the mission of the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) and explain why you have come to Japan?
 

Brigadier Murchison: Thank you very much for inviting us here today to share some of our work. I'm a member of the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, which is a think tank within the UK Ministry of Defence. We are responsible for the conceptual component of policymaking, with the scope of our work straddling from 30 years down to 3 minutes. After the Iraqi inquiry in 2003, there was an emphasis by policymakers on evidence-based decision-making rather than decision-based evidence making. We are the organization that helps improve decision-making at all levels.
 

Within DCDC, there are three main elements: the Doctrine Team, which looks at joint operational-level decision-making for the command and staff; the Concepts Team, which supports balance investment decision-making; and I head up the Futures Team, which supports policy and the strategy development within the Ministry of Defence. We are quite a small team of only about 60 people, 50% military and 50% civilian. Therefore, in order to cover the breadth of work required, we need to build a network with global partners, academia, and other think tanks. To this end, we have come for an Indo-Pacific regional visit to share our Global Strategic Trends report and to better understand the different perspectives in the region. We are visiting Japan, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand over about a two to three-week period to better understand the richness of the insights in the region as well as the perspectives of those who are here rather than back in the UK.
 

Mr. Nishida: We are honored to be the first stop on your trip. You mentioned Global Strategic Trends (GST). Can you tell us about how you use the GST series and where this report is located within the UK government's decision-making structure?

Mr. Nishida: What were the main findings of GST 6 and how is it different from previous editions?
 

Brigadier Murchison: We found that while many of the trends feel very familiar, the rate of change and the level of uncertainty is genuinely novel, which may impact the ability for countries to govern and to stay united nationally and internationally. The central idea of GST 6 is that the pace of change and level of uncertainty could outpace good governance and unity. Now that these changes are happening so quickly, enabled by technology, we need to take action now.

We broke down our work into six key drivers. The first is increasing environmental stress, which includes aspects of climate change, resource scarcity, and other related issues. Secondly, there are demographic challenges particularly with aging societies, unbalanced population growth, increasing migration, urbanization, and the like. Thirdly is the advanced speed of technological change and the ways we exploit and mitigate what is variously referred to as the fourth industrial revolution. Fourthly is increasing human empowerment. This driver speaks to the way that individuals in communities are interacting with one another and are taking much greater responsibility for their own futures. Arguably, phenomena such as the election of Donald Trump, Brexit, and populism are manifestations of this theme. Fifthly is the centrality of information. This refers to the all-pervasive nature of information that has become central to everything we do. Things like social media and the echo chamber effect are now changing the way we interact with one another. Finally, and most significantly, is power transition and diffusion. Power transition between states has largely been brought about by the shift in the economic center of gravity from west to east, and power diffusion within states is a result of an increasing number of actors and a mismatch between the expectations of the population and the capacity of the government to actually deal with issues.
 

Mr. Nishida: What are the implications for Indo-Pacific security in 2050?