Narrator: What will happen to the United States and the world with the upcoming return of President Trump in 2025?
Amb. Sasae: Whatever the United States would do will have an enormous impact.
Narrator: How should Japan position itself in this context?
Dr. Sunami: To place itself to see the perspective from the Global South.
Narrator: The leaders of two prominent think tanks in Japan delve into the global landscape beginning in 2025 and Trump's second presidency.
Host: Hello. I'm your host, Jackie Enzmann. My first guest is Ambassador Sasae Kenichiro. Ambassador Sasae, welcome.
Amb. Sasae: Nice to see you. Happy to be here.
Host: Thank you very much. Our second guest is Dr. Sunami Atsushi. Dr. Sunami, thanks for joining us today.
Dr. Sunami: Great to be here.
Narrator: As Japan's ambassador to the U.S. during Trump's first term. Ambassador Sasae was on the front lines of U.S.-Japan negotiations and played a key role in fostering the friendly relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Abe. He now leads the Japan Institute of International Affairs, a prominent think tank.
Dr. Sunami studied political science in New York and specializes in science and technology policy in Japan. He leads one of Japan's largest private think tanks, traveling the world as a key figure in public diplomacy.
Host: The presidential election ended with an overwhelming victory for Donald Trump. How should we interpret these election results, and are you expecting any significant differences between the previous Trump administration and this next administration?
Amb. Sasae: Of course, there is a big difference. I mean, the fundamental philosophy and the thinking behind Mr. Trump could be the same, but what could happen could be very different. He has a lot of experience accumulated, and then he has more power to do it. So, whatever the United States would do would to have an enormous impact, not only on the United States, but also globally.
Dr. Sunami: Well, I think how he came into the White House is very different from the previous time. Now Europe is in war and the situation in the Middle East is very different and complicated. And then, there is the issue of the rise of the Global South.
The international environment is very different from the previous Trump administration. I think this is a great challenge for him, but he really understands what he wants to do.
Host: Looking at this election, what do you think it implies regarding U.S. society and its current state right now domestically?
Amb. Sasae: I think it's become more divisive and possibly more uncertain. Is this a long term trend or just a short term trend because of the frustrations of American people about the economy and illegal immigrants or human rights and women's rights and so forth, or is this more a fundamental shift or trend of the American way of doing things, including democratic institutions? How will America play its role?
Dr. Sunami: I think the issue of the economy, as the ambassador mentioned, is very crucial to face in Trump’s second term and looking at the midterm election coming in two years. The amount of inflation that they're suffering, that they're facing as an issue in the U.S. economy, and how he can manage the domestic economic condition and situation is really a challenge for him.
When President Trump clearly stated that tariffs are a very important tool for U.S. diplomacy, he's using that not as an economic policy, but as diplomacy. This could go both ways. I think if it's an economic policy, then there's not a lot of problems that he would face because of the inflation that he's facing domestically. Also, raising tariffs usually accelerates the pressure for inflation. But if you're using that as a tool for diplomacy, I think that could go both ways, so that's what creates uncertainty.
Host: You bring up the issue of tariffs, and of course, Donald Trump has been quite vocal about his plans to use tariffs once he assumes office again. What does that mean from Japan's perspective and how do you interpret those plans?
Dr. Sunami: Using tariffs as a sort of weaponizing it as a tariff in a way to advance the U.S. interest in global affairs, it's a new dimension. I think, it's very questionable as to how much that is going to be effective without hurting the U.S. itself because the interdependence is so high.
I think in spite of the rhetoric when he was talking about tariffs, saying it's the most beautiful word or term. In reality, he'd be very wise not to really overstate, overuse, or over emphasize the effect of tariffs.
Amb. Sasae: I think that's exactly the point. If we cannot really do it properly and use tariffs in the proper negotiating context, then that might produce a quid pro quo of raising the tax and weaponizing each other and then that would give this sense to the world that we might be going back to the days before World War II, because all this raising taxes and others would follow and beggar thy neighbor policy. We know the history. So, the mood of the age could be very darkened. That's what I'm worried about.
Host: I want to hear a little bit more about what you see as Japan's approach to confronting these issues that we've discussed regarding tariffs and regarding the economy. What do you see as Japan's approach?
Amb. Sasae: I think we should be giving a good opinion and advice to the president and those people who are assisting him, including the Secretary of State and Treasury and other people in charge of economic and trade policy. The message should be don't mistake, don't do wrong things to friends and allies, and of course, that we are ready to cooperate.
Dr. Sunami: I think Japan is a little bit better positioned in terms of having trust from President Trump because of Prime Minister Abe and his relationship with President Trump. Compared to other countries, Japan is in a position to even just tell President Trump what we need to tell him directly, and that is an asset at the moment.
Host: The second Trump administration comes at a time of increasing instability around the world, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. How do you think, under the new U.S. leadership, the U.S. will be navigating these crises?
Dr. Sunami: I sincerely hope that President Trump could somehow intervene and first of all, stop the killing, the war itself. I don't think that would be a solution to the fundamental conflict and the fundamental problem in the Middle East or Ukraine, but first we have to see the ceasefire.
Amb. Sasae: I agree with Dr. Sunami. It's easy to say and difficult to do. We all know it because once you agree to the ceasefire, then on the ground, where do you stop this ceasefire line? Ukraine would be obviously worried that that this ceasefire line could be the line of control like the Korean Peninsula or other places in Pakistan, and de facto it could be a line of territory. That's why they continue to fight and push back, and Russia continues to try to maintain and further expand the line of the fight on the front lines.
But as we move on, obviously there could be a more burden on even the Russians. They have to sacrifice more people and soldiers and economically, they could still sustain, but there will be more burden and there could be some concern.
And in the West too, there are more voices that say “can we continue to support to Ukraine both financially and militarily?” There has to be some moment of truth we have to face.
Host: Looking to international issues more broadly, I think a country that's top of mind for many people is also China, so I'd like to ask you about how you see the Trump administration's approach to China, as well as what Japan's position is regarding this potential approach.
Amb. Sasae: I think Trump’s approach with China compared to Biden's policy over China could be obviously different. Biden’s policy was trying to balance between competition and confrontation, if necessary, and also cooperation. All these three were coming together and a kind of incremental progress was pursued.
But, judging from what [Trump] has said and those people around him have said, this element of collaboration could be more in the backyard. But at the end, this could come back again, but my sense is that they could start from throwing hard balls, and I think China is expecting that one, possibly.
Dr. Sunami: My concern is how stable China is going to be facing this domestic social crisis and issues that that it's that we are now observing. The Chinese economy is not as strong as it used to be. They are facing a lot of domestic issues that they have to solve. And if you're giving pressure from outside of China, I don't know how that would affect China's leadership. But today, I think that China is very different from the one that President Trump faced before the first time around. That's the concern.
Amb. Sasae: All this Chinese domestic policy, especially economic struggle, would have an enormous impact on their decision-making, how they would to face the challenge from the United States from their own perspectives. My sense is that they would like to maintain, to keep that relationship with the United States for the sake of putting more political energies and resources into a domestic economic recovery.
Host: Also looking to the East Asia region, another area of interest is the Korean Peninsula. I wanted to hear your thoughts about what kind of expectations you have for the U.S. regarding the Korean Peninsula as well as what that means for Japan.
Amb. Sasae: In the first Trump administration, he had a leader’s meeting with Kim Jong-Un and a kind of breakthrough moment in terms of addressing the nuclear and missile issues. That was good, actually. As a matter of fact, after all this Trump administration effort to stop it, there wasn’t a really strong follow up negotiations with North Korea. There was some other priority agenda. Then there was the Biden administration coming in. They were busy on the Ukraine, Middle East, and even Chinese issues. But the point here is that while we are not negotiating with them, they continue to develop their capacity. So that's a concern.
My hope and wish is that the Trump administration would once again review, the policy and, and try to engage them in a negotiation with North Korea. Mr. Trump, he's very good at, you know, talking to a person like Kim Jong Un. He has kind of a great talent for doing that, to be honest.
Host: And what do you see as the outlook for the Japan-U.S. alliance itself?
Amb. Sasae: Over the years, the Japan-U.S alliance has become deeper, stronger, and wider. Under the new Trump administration, I think there is bipartisan consensus, both in the U.S. Congress and administration, that our alliance relationship is a key for the United States to play a role in the region.
Having said this one, I think there could be some challenges, of course. Mr. Trump is always thinking in terms of financial aspects of the relationship with friends and allies. When Mr. Trump was telling NATO countries that you should increase defense [spending] from the level of GDP 2% to 4% of GDP, I think they were resisting at the time.
Nowadays, some countries in Europe, especially the Baltic states and the eastern part of Europe, he was right. I think the question is that, should we really try to reduce our own burden? The issue is that should we share the burden for the sake of ourselves?
And for example, this is a hypothetical, but he could come and say that, well, 2% of GDP within five years is great, but could you possibly do more? Then we have to ask ourselves, is that the right thing for us?
Dr. Sunami: Looking at the environment around us, the U.S.-Japan alliance is stronger than ever, but that doesn't mean that Japan is safer itself. There is an issue of Japan as we need to think about creating a much safer environment in terms of getting ready for any sort of conflict. Or, if you look at the area of cyber or space, in those areas, the new frontier of national security, even the United States cannot provide a complete security safety net around it by itself. We have to be working together with the United States
And they are welcoming the partnership with Japan, and that will never change, whoever the president is in the United States. I think that partnership has got to the point where we are very ready to address more regional and global security.
Host: One major point of global interest with the next Trump administration is its stance on the pressing issue of climate change. Donald Trump has been very vocal about his plans to increase fossil fuel production, among other climate related policies. What are your thoughts about this?
Dr. Sunami: Well, it is clear that when it comes to the climate crisis, the U.S. role under the Trump administration would be very challenging, I think that he has already stated that the climate crisis, the global challenge, is not something that he really wanted to address as a top priority of his administration. So, the issue is how Japan and other countries can fill the gap of the U.S. retreating from the efforts of addressing the climate crisis.
Amb. Sasae: Yes, I think you're right that, the priority is lower. Not necessarily priority, but Mr. Trump might try to reverse some of the policy taken by the previous administration. But I want to say this – all of the Paris convention goals we have worked on and agreed to need to be maintained with or without, I would say, the U.S. administration and the U.S. government, taking part.
Host: Looking to international relations more broadly, what do you see as Japan's role in this?
Amb. Sasae: I think the American leadership to lead, the global architecture, especially multilateral institutions like the United Nations and including climate change and disarmament and all other things, hopefully not on the humanitarian front, but we might not see as big leadership as we had seen before. And if the policies focus more on the bilateral side of policy, and to some extent regional, I think on the whole supporting the international multilateral institution interest might be leveling down. That is true.
Dr. Sunami: I think the most important thing that Japan can do is to place itself to see the perspective from the Global South or other countries, not just G7, and to understand their views and perspectives as we see the second Trump administration for the second time, coming back. What they are seeing, what they're trusting, what are their views on the global agenda from their perspective. It's very important for Japan to understand. So, Japan should continue and engage more with the dialogues with the Global South.
Host: We've had these discussions talking about the role of international organizations, of course, the important role of official diplomatic channels and those kind of direct discussions between countries. I wonder if you could talk a bit more about the potential role for private organizations in forging these ties and building these connections.
Dr. Sunami: There are a lot of things that, as a private foundation, we can do, where the government is really having a difficulty in addressing issues like humanitarian issues and that kind of principle of basic human security, which Japan really endorsed. We are free to engage in dialogue with anybody who both sides of conflict, whether the West or Global South or non-state actors that are a very important stakeholders in the Middle East crisis at the moment.
Amb. Sasae: Yeah, I think that is true. I respect what your institution is doing, when the government is not necessarily able to fully place imprints, especially dealing with fighting forces. I know that Sasakawa is doing great to support and try to even engage in an effort to have a talk among the competing forces and also using its own resources for humanitarian causes and also global health and other agendas, Afghanistan, and so forth. So I think this is again complemental. The private sector can do more when the government found it difficult to go in.
Host: I think looking to Japan, U.S. relations and Japan acting as a bridge, as you mentioned, what do you see as the potential for conveying those voices from the global South, or acting as a bridge between these countries and the United States?
Amb. Sasae: When we try to have a better relationship with ASEAN and other countries in the South, we have our own traditional close relationships with these countries, and the fact that we maintain and strengthen the relationship with these countries would support the United States going forward, especially in competing with challenging countries, especially authoritarian countries.
As I said before, all this competition between democratic nations and authoritarian countries, most of the countries in the South don't want to get involved, to be honest, including countries like ASEAN and so forth. But they want to see Japan-U.S. alliance, because they realize that this alliance could be a good counterbalance with too much dominance of China in the region.
Dr. Sunami: Because we have a trust and a good relationship with the United States, we could independently engage with these countries based on our own national interest. Myanmar, Middle East, there are some areas that Japan's national interest doesn't necessarily always equal to what the U.S. interest is and what U.S. policy is. But because we are building the very strong partnership and alliance with the United States, Japan can engage in those issues.
Host: Looking overall to this conversation that we've been having – we've been discussing the new Trump administration and looking toward the future of the Japan-U.S alliance and other global issues – with all of this conversation in mind, what would be your closing message in terms of that outlook for the future?
Amb. Sasae: The Trump administration could be different, the approach could be different, and that could be a surprise, but the important thing is that we have our own visions and definitions of our national interest that are closely entwined with United States’ interests, and we should be confident about what we can do together with the United States, giving good advice, and also when we don't think something is right, we could say it. That is the important thing for friends and allies.
Dr. Sunami: Fundamentally, U.S.-Japan relations, it's not going to be so affected, as we are moving on to more strengthening and better and the best relations that we have had, and the second term of President Trump is probably different from the first time. So we don't know how we should approach this, but no matter what it takes, we have to at the early stage of President Trump’s administration, we have to show that Japan and the U.S. are together.
Host: This has been an incredibly insightful discussion. I wanted to thank you both very much for sharing your perspectives with us today. Thank you very much.
Dr. Sunami: Thank you.
Amb. Sasae: We very much enjoyed it. Thank you.
Host: Thank you for joining us today. We hope to continue to share insights from Japan. Until next time.
