While we're going to talk about the U.S. presidential election, Japan has also recently elected a new prime minister, so I first wanted to hear how would you characterize the overall approach of this new Japanese administration regarding Japan-U.S. relations?
Mr. Kanehara: The big change happened with Prime Minister Abe. The second Abe administration changed many things, and the basic reason was the Chinese rise. China was our size when Abe took power in 2012, and when he left the government, China was four times bigger than Japan, and the military budget was soaring.
The U.S. started saying that this is the age of great power competition. In 2020, the Secretary of State Pompeo said that in the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, and that's changed many things. Abe san changed the constitutional interpretation and said we can join the war outside Japan with the U.S. using the collective self-defense rights. That means we can protect Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Kishida san, he doubled the defense budget, and Ishiba san will step into their shoes, so he must implement the policy that was set by Abe and Kishida.
How do you see that playing out with Japan-U.S. policy specifically?
Mr. Kanehara: The U.S. was protecting us for a long time. Russia was our main enemy. The Soviet Union collapsed, and then North Korea started to make bombs. We prepared somehow for a contingency in Korean Peninsula. Taiwan, the defense of Taiwan, we never thought of it in Washington or in Tokyo either. Now they are talking about it.
In 2022, President Biden invited Prime Minister Suga to Washington. They talked about Taiwan Strait issues, and the last time was in 1969 between Nixon and Sato. 50 years, never talked about it. It was taboo. Now it came again to the surface, and now we have to coordinate our positions, plans, everything. This is a restart, a new start of our alliance phase.
I'd like to turn to the U.S. election. As we stand right now, we're just a little over two weeks out from the election, and it's really impossible to tell how things are going to go on Election Day at this point. Since it's difficult for us to make a prediction either way, I wanted to take each candidate in turn and look at their respective positions.
I'd like to start with Trump, as he has already been president in the past. From what you've been hearing and what you've seen in his past administration as well as more recently, how would you characterize his position regarding Japan?
Mr. Kanehara: We had Prime Minister Abe. He was very close to President Trump. He was almost like a half family member, so Japan was special for Mr. Trump, and Abe san took that as an advantage, and he tried to persuade President Trump why Japan is so important.
One, Japan is investing a lot to the United States, started to invest directly into the United States and China, Europe, and the ASEAN nations. In 50 states, Japanese companies are operating. Toyota became an American car, as 75% of parts are made in the United States.
And two, our defense efforts are increasing, and our Aegis ships were protecting American carriers. President Trump didn't know about these things. Oh, really? Oh, really? And Abe san could persuade him why Japan is an important ally to the United States. Maybe you have to restart this again. We have no longer Prime Minister Abe, who was assassinated, so we have to reassure Trump why Japan is important again. A second phase is necessary.
And we had very good counterparts – Bolton, McMaster, Matt Pottinger, Vice President Pence, Secretary of Defense Mattis, Secretary of State Pompeo. We could talk to their aides and advisers, and we could have a very stable strategic and diplomatic relationship with the Trump administration. So, it depends upon who would sit next to him. We don't know who is going to sit around him, but we have to build up ties as a team with him.
You've characterized how former Prime Minister Abe was able to establish this relationship. It's been quite a few years since that time. Have you seen any potential changes in his policy or in his stance?
Mr. Kanehara: Mr. Trump?
Yes.
Mr. Kanehara: I don't think so. For him, to make America great again, America is a single superpower. That's his worldview. But the truth is America needs allies, and this is American diplomacy. They create a great mainstream in the world history or the politics. That's American diplomacy. Allies are very important. I wish him to understand that.
Now, I'd like to turn to a potential Harris administration, which may be a bit more of a question mark just because while she served as vice president, she's never served in a presidential role and maybe hasn't had the opportunity to articulate how exactly she might approach Japan or the region. How would you describe her policy regarding Japan?
Mr. Kanehara: I think that she will step into the traditional American diplomacy, and many good people in the Biden administration could help her inside and outside of the government. I think we don't see any risk or unpredictability about Madam Harris. She would simply continue the very stable, traditional American diplomacy with allies.
Now I would like to turn a little bit more to how Japan is watching this election as well. What do you see as the key points that the Japanese side is really looking to as this election is unfolding?
Mr. Kanehara: The focus on Asia, what would happen to the next president is the biggest issue for us. We have the Taiwan issue here. The U.S. posture vis-a-vis Taiwan, it won't change whether it is Trump or Harris. They say, as far as China continues the status quo, that's fine, but now Taiwan is more and more self-assertive, right? So, China continues to threaten Taiwan with the military exercises. But China fears American intervention, now. On the Chinese side, they can never imagine that either Trump or Madam Harris accept Chinese military intervention and conquering Taiwan militarily. If so, China will not do that.
In Congress, Republicans and Democrats both are standing with Taiwan. So, if either one takes the White House, I don't think the basic stance would change, but the styles are very different. Mr. Trump wants to have a big deal, and Kamala Harris would be more reserved and continue to pursue a more stable approach to China.
What specific issues will you yourself be paying attention to after the election results have come out? What will you be watching?
Mr. Kanehara: We have worked a lot together with Americans with Abe, with Suga, and with Kishida. Ishiba san, he was out of the mainstream, but now he is in the driving seat, and he should continue to do the homework of Abe, Suga, and Kishida.
There is so much homework. We have just started to work seriously on national security, but how about energy security? We’re dependent upon foreign countries for energy, 90%. In a Taiwan contingency, what would you do? And the nuclear power plants are stopped, and we don't know what to do.
Food, we are maintaining 125 million Japanese here and they have to eat. And we are dependent upon sea lanes. In a contingency, are we safe with these ships? We have no shelters here. If bombs drop from the sky, Japanese would die instantly. There is no civil protection plan.
So, we have many things to do. Abe, Suga, Kishida, my calculation is they did 40% of the homework, but we have 60% of the homework still, and I hope that Ishiba san will do it.
Outro
That was our conversation with Nobukatsu Kanehara, Executive Director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Thanks for joining us for this episode of SPF World Views, and we’ll see you next time.
