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Uncovering China's Nuclear Warhead Production Cycle — FY 2025 Interim Research Report —

Report

Uncovering China's Nuclear Warhead Production Cycle — FY 2025 Interim Research Report —

By Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF)

May 1, 2026

Within the Project for Elucidating China’s Nuclear Warhead Production Cycle (FY 2025) conducted under the National Security and Japan–U.S. Program of The Sasakawa Peace Foundation, the Group on International Trends in the Nuclear Warhead Production Cycle (Chair: Mr. Yū Koizumi, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation) has undertaken an in-depth investigation into China’s nuclear warhead production cycle—an area that remains insufficiently understood. As a result of this effort, the Group has compiled the “Uncovering China’s Nuclear Warhead Production Cycle — FY 2025 Interim Research Report —.”

Since the 2010s, China has rapidly expanded its nuclear forces, increasing not only delivery systems—such as missiles, bombers, and nuclear-powered submarines—but also the number of nuclear warheads themselves. The number of deployed warheads is estimated to have doubled over the past decade, reaching approximately 600 as of 2025, with some assessments suggesting that the total could rise to 1,000 by 2030. This level would amount to nearly two-thirds of the strategic nuclear warhead deployment limit (1,550 warheads) that had been stipulated for the United States and Russia under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which expired in February 2026. Such developments could have significant implications for U.S. extended nuclear deterrence, a cornerstone of Japan’s national security policy.

Departing from conventional frameworks of China studies, this research group was composed of six experts from a broad range of disciplines, including military and security studies, nuclear physics, and specialized knowledge of uranium enrichment and reprocessing—processes indispensable to nuclear material production. With the cooperation of members fluent in Chinese, the group analyzed official Chinese government documents and made extensive use of high-resolution satellite imagery. Through these methods, the study sought to identify the facilities and geographic locations involved in each stage of China’s nuclear warhead production process, from fissile material production to warhead assembly.

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Description

Date of Publication

May 2026

Content

Chapter 1, What Is the Nuclear Warhead Production Cycle?, focuses primarily on understanding what materials and technologies are needed to produce a nuclear warhead in the first place, and what processes they undergo in the course of completing a nuclear warhead. Since the nuclear warhead production cycles of both the U.S. and Russia, two countries that pioneered nuclear weapons development, have been clarified to some extent after the Cold War, the cycles of these two countries are analyzed to prepare for elucidating the nuclear warhead production cycles of China in the next chapter.

Chapter 2, China’s Nuclear Warhead Production Cycle: What We Know and What We Don't, provides an overview of China's nuclear development history and attempts to elucidate its nuclear material production and nuclear warhead assembly systems, including hypotheses. It also examines the recent status of nuclear test sites and the process of how China acquired nuclear-related technology.

Chapter 3, Future Prospects for Nuclear Warhead Production Cycle, examines how the nuclear warhead production cycle analyzed thus far relates to the formulation of China's nuclear strategy. It also forecasts trends in the nuclear warhead production cycle to provide insights for future verification activities. The analysis and verification based on this structure yielded the key findings and future outlook listed at the beginning of this report. On the other hand, the full scope of the nuclear warhead production cycle in China has not yet been elucidated, and continued research will be essential in the coming years. We hope that this report will further deepen these efforts.

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