SPF NUS-ISAS Joint Webinar

　The fight over the Indo-Pacific is ultimately a battle of allies and partners. Even when the United States (US) and China may be the extant and emerging great powers in the region, the Indo-Pacific’s balance of power is contingent upon how these actors weave winning coalitions in alignment with the region’s other prominent actors. If China’s heavy-handedness and overly aggressive posture have forced a reintegration of effort by the members of the Quadrilateral Security Initiative, it is equally a result of endless diplomatic networking by the US. The increasing involvement of the European powers, particularly France and Britain, to keep the Indo-Pacific free and open is also a shot in the arm of American Indo-Pacific strategy. Finally, the US-led Quad countries have also increasingly pressed upon many Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries to start calling out China’s coercive tactics in the region. Even when ASEAN has long resisted both the need and pressure to confront China, persistent pressure from the US and other Quad countries has forced some ASEAN countries to abandon their strictly neutralist positioning. The grand coalition of forces, which the US diplomacy is accumulating, is the major challenge facing the Chinese decision-makers. Not without reason, therefore, coalitions like the Quad and greater participation of the European countries in the affairs of the Indo-Pacific have come under severe criticism from Beijing.

　However, as an alignment of the Indo-Pacific’s maritime democracies is strengthening, so does a counter-coalition in the form of Eurasia’s continental autocracies. Russia’s soft entente with China is the most considerable boost to China’s diplomacy in recent times. Sanctioned by the West, Moscow finds in Beijing a ready ally that can help sustain the Russian economy through exports of raw materials and military technology and a diplomatic partner in the ideological struggle against Western liberal democracies. Notwithstanding the economic and domestic policy requirements, the growing Sino-Russian entente augments Beijing’s geopolitical heft. Under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s resurgent geopolitics has pivoted towards Asia. Russia’s eastward gaze not only attests to the geoeconomic and geopolitical rise of Asia in global politics but is also reflective of a more profound realisation in Moscow that its own economic and security interests are deeply intertwined with the region’s future. For the first time in its history, Russia is becoming an Asian power. Not without reason, therefore, Putin has identified China, India, ASEAN, and Japan as the most critical targets of Russian foreign policy.

　Russian foreign policy has grave consequences for the emerging balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. First, it provides a counter-coalition to the evolving alignment between the Indo-Pacific states in managing China’s rise. Second, Russia’s bilateral relations with specific Quad countries such as Japan and India can drive a wedge within the emerging Quad coalition. Lastly, Russia can render Europe’s participation in the Indo-Pacific deeply problematic by raising the tempo of its politico-military coercion in Easter Europe.

　To understand Russia’s emerging role in the Indo-Pacific and its impact on the policies of the Quad and European countries in the region, this roundtable, organised by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and the Institute of South Asian Studies, NUS, will discuss Moscow’s approach towards the region. The participants will aim to discuss the following questions: What are Russia’s primary interests and strategic concerns in the Indo-Pacific, and how does it aim to secure them? In the face of significant realignments of security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, what are Russia’s strategic choices? What are the expectations and fears in India and Japan over Russia’s approach to the Indo-Pacific and its growing entente with China? How do the European states involved in the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific view Russia’s contributions to the balance of power in the region?