ContentsEvaluation of the Contribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Componentsin Eutrophication Problems― For Proper Integrated Coastal Management ―Tetsuya Takahashi* ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・11An Analysis of the Impact of Land-based Water Pollutant Flowing intothe Sea of Japan and Optimal Allocation of Environmental Investmentamong the Countries in the Sea of Japan AreaKatsuhiro SAKURAI* ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・33Science and Politics in the International Whaling Regulation:Toward a Revision of Japanese Whaling DiplomacyAyako Okubo ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・51Building an Integrated Container Network and Policyin Northeast Asia－An Anlysis of Current East Asian Reginal Ferry Network－Han, Jong-Khil ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・65海洋政策研究 第4号－11－*Nagasaki UniversityEvaluation of the Contribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Componentsin Eutrophication Problems― For Proper Integrated Coastal Management ―Tetsuya Takahashi*SUMMARYThe eutrophication problems represented by red tides and hypoxia are now widely spread in theworld's aqua-systems. Eutrophication occurs as the result of overlap between human impacts and naturalphenomena. These age-old problems are unsolved and even spreading and worsening. Today,eutrophication has become a global environmental problem comparable to global warming. Thedifficulties of eutrophication problems can be distilled into two aspects. First is the anthropogenic aspect,that eutrophication is closely related to food problems. Second is the unknown natural contribution toeutrophication. This study is composed of two studies on the anthropogenic and natural effects oneutrophication.Keywords: water system, DO, eutrophication, natural environmental effect, anthropogenic environmentaleffect, ICM1. Anthropogenic effects on eutrophication:The shift from organic to inorganic fertilizerin the 19th and 20th centuries led to foodproduction being based on mineral resources andair. Since then, large amounts of nitrogen andphosphorus have been put into the soil as fertilizerand flowed out toward the sea, causing globaleutrophication in aqua-systems such as undergroundwater, rivers, lakes, and semi-enclosedseas. Although global eutrophication bears amarked similarity to global warming, its significancehas been largely overlooked in comparison.Among the countries pressed by the eutrophicationproblems, Japan is anomalous becauseof its low food production. The USA, EU, andChina account for a large percentage of worldfertilizer use and excess fertilizer induces eutrophicationproblems. In Japan, domestic wastewateris the dominant source of eutrophication,which originates from imported food and fertilizer.Differences between producing and consumingcountries lead to a gap in awareness andcountermeasures against global eutrophication.Food producing countries are strengthening theintegrated control of water-systems, includingagriculture. In Japan, a decline in the ratio of foodself-support is frequently pointed out as a閉鎖性海域の富栄養化問題に対する人為影響と天然影響の評価－12－problem for food security, though discussion ofthe global environmental aspects are lacking.2. Effects of natural phenomena on eutrophicationRecent studies have pointed out the comparablecontribution of natural phenomena toeutrophication problems. Even in semi-enclosedbays with a concentrated watershed population,the natural effect is not negligible. This factcomplicates eutrophication control.In this section, the natural component ineutrophication problems (hypoxia) in semienclosedbays in Japan is estimated using the box-model analysis. The study fields are Ise, Osaka,and Tokyo Bays. These are the three major baysof Japan, which are similar in size, latitudinallocation, the existence of river discharge, and thefrequent occurrence of water pollution such ashypoxia.The dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) isdetermined by respiration and water exchangerates. The effect of water exchange is defined asthe natural component and evaluated by a simplemodel based on the box-model analysis. Thecalculated DO agrees well with the observed DO.The results indicate that the oxygen decrease inIse Bay is induced mainly by change in the waterexchange rate, and that Ise Bay is highlyvulnerable and the bottom sediment is suggestedto be highly organic-polluted. The rapid recoveryof DO by the nitrogen and phosphorus reductionpolicy cannot be expected, as it requires acountermeasure for reducing the concentration oforganic matter in the sediment.fossil fuel（oil and gas, etc）mineral resources/air（phosphorus ・N2 gas, etc.）combustion energyCO2emissionglobal warmingNitrogen/phosphorusemissionglobal eutrophicationenergy combustionBiological activity Industrial activityWater system AtomosphereFig. 3 Analogy between eutrophication and global warming.海洋政策研究 第4号－13－0123456789Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecTheoreticalObservedmg/L(a)(b)Theoreticalmg/Lmg/LFig 2 (a)Seasonal variation in observed andcalculated DO with constant respiration rate.(b) Map of observed and calculated DO.(Repiration rate:constant, residence time:variate)caseⅠy = 1.08 x - 0.40R2 = 0.880123456789100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0123456789TheoreticalObserved(a)(b)mg/Lmg/Lmg/L0123456789100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10y = 0.91 x + 0.39R2 = 0.93caseⅡFig 3 (a)Seasonal variation in observed andcalculated DO with constant respiration rate.(b) Map of observed and calculated DO.(Repiration rate:variate, residence time:variate)Theoretical6 4 2SepAnoxia0 mgL-1AugDec JunAprJanMarHypoxiaFig 4 The variation in respiration and residence timein Ise Bay.Residence time (days)Fig. 5 Fig. 6Fig. 7海洋政策研究 第4号－33－An Analysis of the Impact of Land-based Water Pollutant Flowing intothe Sea of Japan and Optimal Allocation of Environmental Investmentamong the Countries in the Sea of Japan AreaKatsuhiro SAKURAI*SUMMARYThis study focuses on the Sea of Japan, a sea area located along the northeastern part of the Asiancontinent. It is separated from the North Pacific Ocean by the Japanese Archipelago and Sakhalin. TheSea of Japan area consists of Japan, DPR Korea, South Korea, China, and Far East Russia in NortheastAsia. Cooperation among these countries is necessary to manage the ocean environment and attainsustainable development in the region.The purpose of this study is to present an optimal international investment model for the waterenvironment that takes into account, through dynamic simulation, the economic situations andenvironmental influences of this area over a certain period of time. The system simulation model isformulated by an objective function, which is defined as the maximizing of total GDP, the structure ofthe environmental system, and the socio-economic system of target countries and regions in the coastalareas of the Sea of Japan.To determine environmental impact, the total amount of land-based water pollutant from humanactivities in coastal areas of the Sea of Japan is estimated by the unit value method. The pollutant indexmeasure in this study is COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand). The total amount of COD inflow is derivedby multiplying the total amount of COD emission of socio-economic activity by the environmentalpurification ratio.Next, socio-economic activity is analyzed in the model from a regional economic perspective.Human activities in the land area are divided into industrial and household activities, and it is assumedthat water pollutant is originated by two sectors of wastewater.Industrial activity is classified into the 6 categories of agriculture, manufacturing industry,construction industry, communication and transportation industry, commerce and service industry, andothers. It is assumed in this model that "others" emit no water pollutants. Household wastewater disposalsystem is also classified into the following 6 types of treatment facilities: sewage system, ruralcommunity sewage system, combined treatment septic tank, treatment septic tank, night soil septic tank,and untreated domestic wastewater.Next, an investment policy to reduce the land-based water pollutant from coastal areas into the Seaof Japan is evaluated by a system simulation approach. It establishes several simulation cases, and therunning period is set from 1995 to 2007 in the calculation. For example, Case00 is assumed as the basic* Research Fellow Ocean Policy Research Foundation日本海沿岸地域における国際間の最適環境投資配分と陸域起因水質汚濁負荷物質の日本海への影響分析－34－case maximizing GDP of the target area in the last term with restriction of 0% reduction rate of CODinflow based on 1995 data.As a result of the simulation, a feasible solution is obtained, in which 6% maximum reduction rateof COD inflow of the first period (1995 level) is achieved through the simulation term. It is concludedthat Case06 is the feasible and preferable solution from environmental and economic viewpoints in thetarget area, which means the average amount of COD emission and economic development in the coastalarea of the Sea of Japan. It is also important for abatement of water pollutant to invest in environmentalpolicy and to promote technologies through industrial and economic development. Furthermore,countries and regions around the Sea of Japan area have to cooperate for integrated ocean managementin various activities, such as the efficient investment for industrial abatement of water pollutant and forthe regional economy. This study shows that quantitative analysis is important and gives usefulinformation for future perspectives and policy evaluation.Key words: the sea of Japan, impact of land-based water pollutant, optimal allocation of environmentalinvestment, COD dynamic simulation海洋政策研究 第4号－51－*Ocean Policy Research FoundationScience and Politics in the International Whaling Regulation:Toward a Revision of Japanese Whaling DiplomacyAyako Okubo*SUMMARYIn the mid-1990's, IWC formally adopted an outcome of scientific assessment, the revisedmanagement procedure (RMP), which had been recommended by a consensus of scientists of theScientific Committee of IWC, for situations where scientific uncertainty and value-conflict areunavoidable. Nevertheless, disputes over resumption of commercial whaling continued during thenegotiations at the most recent meeting of the International Whaling Commission (IWC). RMP is acalculation procedure of catch limits for commercial whaling that can avoid serious increases in theextinction risk of whale stocks. This article analyses the development process of RMP and identifiescharacteristics of the scientific assessment that provides a useful basis for international consensusbuilding. It then considers what implications are derived from those characteristics for current utilizationof science in IWC. Furthermore, with the aim of testing widespread discourses and assumptions relatedto whaling issues and establishing a ground for elaborating pragmatic policy options, the appropriatenessof Japanese whaling diplomacy is examined in light of the long-cherished target of the Japanesegovernment, i.e., the resumption of commercial whaling. Lastly, this article suggests possible options forJapanese whaling diplomacy in the near future. Policy agendas for each option are also discussed.Key words: science and politics, whaling, Japanese diplomacy, resource management, IWC海洋政策研究 第4号－65－* Division of Business Administration, Sungkyul University, KoreaBuilding an Integrated Container Network and Policyin Northeast Asia－An Anlysis of Current East Asian Reginal Ferry Network－Han, Jong-Khil＊SUMMARYThis paper focuses on development and integration of the East Asian regional ferry network.Presently, the East Asian economies are moving to integration. An integrated transportation network isthe base of economic integration. A ferry system currently connects the three East Asian countries withtransportation for passenger and cargo. Thus, in this paper, we analyze 1) the present condition of theferry network, 2) how to identify problems and priorities for the opening of new ferry routes by shippingcompanies, 3) how to react to the current development of the regional ferry network for Osaka Port.Major findings of this research are as follows. Firstly, the barriers to opening anew China-Koreaferry route are, 1) procurement of a suitable vessel, 2) flexibility in the Chinese CIQ service, 3) speedywork on the ferry terminal, 4) development of a transportation network between the terminal andhinterland. Secondly, barriers to opening a new Japan-Korea ferry route are, 1) volume movement ofcargo and passengers, 2) convenience of multimodal transportation, 3) flexibility in the CIQ service, 4) aconnecting transportation network to the hinterland.Thus, we propose the following policy measures for Osaka Port, 1) add more flexibility in the CIQservice, 2) develop and redesign the transportation network that connects to the hinterland, 3) enrich themultimodal transportation system, 4) up-grade space and facilities for passengers.Key words: East Asia, ferry,integration, opening of new ferry routes, barriers.