Admiral Philip S. Davidson, former Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, assesses the Japan-U.S. alliance in the face of strategic challenges

On January 25, 2023, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF) in cooperation with Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA welcomed Admiral Philip S. Davidson, former Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM), to the foundation for an event entitled "The Role of the Japan-U.S. Alliance in the Indo-Pacific in 2023: Russia-Ukraine War and China."

To begin the event, SPF President Atsushi Sunami outlined the challenges facing both Japan and the U.S., from the fallout from the shocking invasion of Ukraine by Russia just over a year ago to concern over China’s aggressive actions and threats from North Korea. “We have to face the reality that the world’s security environment is in a very difficult position,” he said, noting that he looked forward to further discussions about the diplomatic and security strategy that may be pursued by Japan and the U.S.

During the keynote address, Admiral Davidson underscored the central role of the Japan-U.S. alliance in facing challenges both in the Indo-Pacific region as well as around the world. “There is no more important alliance to the idea of a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ than the U.S.-Japan alliance,” said Admiral Davidson to begin his remarks, emphasizing the great strides that have been made in the alliance following the successful two-plus-two meetings held in Washington, D.C. earlier in January 2023.

He cited several advances as a result of the meetings, including the extension of Article 5 of the bilateral security agreement to include outer space, a reorganization resulting in a new Marine Littoral Regiment in Okinawa, and “most important, the recognition that our nations’ national security and defense strategies have converged, which paves the way for even more collaboration and development.”

He also applauded Japan’s adoption of its new security policy, calling it a “truly historic new policy” that is “frankly a gamechanger in the region.” He highlighted several developments, including increased defense spending, strengthening efforts in cyber and space, securing access agreements with partners including the U.K. and Australia, and identifying China as a strategic challenge.
 
However, he warned of the lasting challenges posed by the strategic environment, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continuing into its second year with no resolution in sight. He also pointed to China's continuing challenges to the status quo through activities including the rapid expansion in the size and capability of the People’s Liberation Army, the implementation of the National Security Law in Hong Kong, and incursions around the Senkaku Islands, among other actions.

Regarding Taiwan, Admiral Davidson also referenced comments he made while serving as Commandor of USINDOPACOM in which he argued that a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait could happen within the decade. While at the time those comments made waves, he argued they have since gained more traction, pointing out that “Taiwan strait activities are higher than ever,” with the number of incursions by the PLA into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) doubling since 2021.

To counteract these challenges, the key word, according to the Admiral, is deterrence. “The failure of deterrence in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere in the East China Sea or South China Sea would be an economic and human tragedy,” he said, urging that “action now, despite the political diplomatic and economic effort, is more practical sooner than later, and more practical now in peacetime than in crisis.

Following Admiral Davidson’s remarks, Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA Chairman Satohiro Akimoto led a panel discussion with Admiral Davidson and James Schoff, Senior Director of the U.S.-Japan Next Alliance Initiative at Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA.

Their conversation covered a wide range of topics, including the concrete steps and coordination necessary to realize the developments in the alliance, reactions to Japan’s evolving national security stance, and the potential ways deterrence strategy may shift in east Asia.