Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, tighter sanctions have been imposed in the energy sector, Russia’s major source of income. Yet, the country’s global clout is increasing in the nuclear power sector. Despite concerted action in incremental natural gas and oil embargo, Western countries have excluded nuclear energy from sanctions on Russia.
One reason for the lack of sanctions is that in uranium enrichment, the initial process in nuclear fuel production, Russia holds almost 50 percent global market share. The U.S., EU nations, and especially Central and East European countries depend highly on Russia. Before invading Ukraine, Russia had enjoyed over 1 trillion-yen annual earnings from nuclear fuel processing and reactor exports. Even after the invasion, it has maintained the good performance, with 15 percent growth expected in the nuclear power sector*1, helping to fund its war costs. Also, nuclear fuel for small modular reactors (SMR) and fast breeder reactors (FBR), collectively called next-generation reactors, require a special process compared to the conventional nuclear fuel widely used around the world, and Russian companies dominate the market. Russian control in the global nuclear power market is likely to continue into the future.
The U.S. has become increasingly concerned that if the situation remains unchanged, Russia will not only have an inexhaustible war fund, but will also become a security threat, using nuclear fuel supply as a diplomatic weapon, and began developing measures to break away from Russian dependence in the nuclear power sector. As one of the few Western countries that possess uranium enrichment technology, Japan also needs to discuss how nuclear fuel supply should be on a global level.
This article will analyze Russia’s capability in the nuclear power sector and look at the uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel supply situation in Japan, the U.S., and Europe. Then, we will consider the possibility of a supply network advocated by the U.S., and the role of Japan.
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