The Cambrian Explosion in Space
—A Turning Point of Space Security Accelerated by US-China Competition

Introduction: The Moon as a Prelude – The US-China Contest for Deep Space Hegemony

On April 1, 2026, NASA successfully launched Artemis II mission. The Orion spacecraft, carrying four astronauts, achieved NASA's first crewed lunar flyby, the first since Apollo 17, 53 years ago, setting a new record for the farthest distance ever reached by humankind, approximately 406,841 km from Earth. Although this mission was a flight demonstration that did not involve landing on the lunar surface, it undoubtedly represented an important step towards the manned lunar landing by Artemis IV expected in 2028.

China, which has set building a space power as a national goal, is also continuing its efforts toward achieving a manned lunar landing by 2030. On May 11th 2026, it successfully launched the unmanned resupply spacecraft "Tianzhou-10" and docked it at the space station "Tiangong," demonstrating to the world its ability to sustain manned space activities. In addition, there are plans to launch the unmanned space probe "Chang'e 7" towards the lunar south pole in August 2026, and the mission is moving towards realizing manned lunar exploration through the exploration of water ice in permanently shadowed craters.

This competition between the two big powers over lunar exploration is more than just a display of national prestige. It is also a prelude to the next geostrategic competition over deep space exploration and resource acquisition: which country will be the first to begin building a base for manned lunar activities by 2030? With this question at the center, there is significant potential to influence the very course of future great power rivalry.[1]

Lessons from the Past: The Repeated Cycle of Competition and Evolution as seen in Space

Approximately 540 million years ago, the Cambrian explosion occurred, in which the number of species of organisms, which was only a few dozen, abruptly increased, leading to a rapid diversification of life.[2] In this context, environmental, genetic, and biological factors were intricately intertwined, and the acquisition of visual abilities in organisms was a particularly decisive factor. In the relatively peaceful ocean floor, the amount of information (data) that could be acquired through the development of eyes or vision increased exponentially, leading to a dramatic improvement in environmental awareness and information processing capabilities among living organisms.[3] This intensified predator-prey competition among organisms, leading to a chain reaction of diversification, including the development of defensive structures such as hard shells and spines, sophisticated nervous systems and limbs, and even improved intercellular communication capabilities. What was noteworthy was biological capabilities accelerated simultaneously across multiple layers, including attack, defense, cognition, and communication, as a result of acquiring vision. It was a chain reaction where competition sparks more competition and evolution breeds more evolution—that is the essence of the Cambrian explosion.

Modern outer space has parallels with this phenomenon. The increasing sophistication and expansion of satellite sensors, the improvement of data processing capabilities through artificial intelligence (AI), and innovations in cryptography and communication through quantum technology are all intertwined. This has resulted in a simultaneous and widespread competition for space and the evolution of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs).[4] This trend heralds the arrival of an era that could be described as the "Cambrian explosion of Space."

Outer space, which was originally perceived as one of global commons, is now transforming into a 3C domain: competitive, contested, and congested. This is due to the increase in new government and non-government or private sector players, and the increasing versatility of and dependence on space.[5] Furthermore, as many of the fundamental and critical infrastructures of modern society, such as communications, positioning, weather observation, and financial transactions, become increasingly dependent on space systems, outer space is increasingly taking on the character of a ‘commanding height’[6] that can determine strategic advantages. As the struggle for "space superiority" [7] intensifies, a variety of offensive measures are being developed and deployed, including ASAT (anti-satellite weapons), satellite jamming, cyberattacks, and even lasers and electromagnetic pulses.[8]

As offensive capabilities diversify in this way, defensive measures will also be forced to become more multi-layered, and the sophistication of these measures will spur the development of additional offensive capabilities. This cycle replicates the predator-prey competition chain of the Cambrian explosion in outer space. Outer space has transcended from being a domain of exploration and development competition between nations to a new stage for the arms race that will likely last for decades to come.

Shifting US Dominance and a Multipolar Space Race: A New Phase in the Struggle for Space Supremacy.

While the United States enjoys a high degree of dominance in space, its current position is not guaranteed in the future due to China's rapid pursuit. In the United States, congressional approval, budget allocation, and public support are essential for advancing space policy, and structural uncertainties exist regarding the consistency and continuity of space strategy as a democratic nation. As a result, privately-led space development has become more conventional.

In contrast, China possesses an institutional advantage, being able to strongly and systematically promote its space policy as a national strategy under a unified decision-making structure by the Communist Party. Despite this asymmetrical competitive structure between the US and China, the multipolarization and acceleration of technological innovation will continue to be an intensifying trend, compounded by the entry of new private companies and the rise of new big national players such as Europe, Japan, and India.

The arena of international competition has already moved beyond low Earth orbit to the space between the Earth and the Moon (cislunar space) [9], and a multitude of security challenges lay ahead for the states involved.[10]

In order to seamlessly address big data, make AI-driven military operational decisions, and execute timely and appropriate defense operations, it will be essential to accelerate cross-domain integrated operational postures, reallocate defense resources, and establish cooperation and coordination mechanisms with allies and like-minded countries. The faster technological innovation progresses, exceeding humanity's expectations, the more serious the dilemma becomes: the development of institutional and human infrastructure cannot keep pace. The Cambrian explosion in the space is truly a double-edged sword, as it simultaneously brings humanity the benefits of technological innovation and its risks.

Conclusion: Species that Adapt to Change Survive—the Cambrian Explosion in Space and Japan's Choices Going Forward

To respond to the accelerating technological innovation and the rapid changes in security related to outer space, Japan must adjust its strategies and policies to expand beyond the Moon to Mars and deep space, actively introduce EDTs, and ensure interoperability with allies and partners. At the issue’s core lies a deeper question: how can we cultivate the intellectual strength of a nation to continuously produce and utilize superior technologies? It would start from the fundamental levels of education, specifically, broadening the base of space education from elementary school and to instill a flexible, unconventional way of thinking about space throughout society. Furthermore, it is expected that a system will be established, involving both the public and private sectors, to systematically and comprehensively cultivate and secure personnel with expertise in cutting-edge fields such as EDTs.

Even if we can introduce the technology itself in years to come, without the expertise to master it and continuously evolve it, sustainable actualization of space security will be impossible. The survivors of the Cambrian explosion were not necessarily the strongest or the most intelligent species, but were those most responsive to change. Securing such individuals should be the top priority in pioneering a new era of cosmic Cambrian explosions.

(2026/06/17)