Publication of Policy Papers for the SPF Project “Cooperation Between European and Indo-Pacific Powers in the U.S. Alliance System”
IINA (International Information Network Analysis) hosts a series of policy papers featuring analyses and insights from U.S., Japanese, South Korean, Australian and European experts, which discuss constructive cooperation among U.S. allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. The series aims to provide readers with valuable perspectives on the future of NATO-IP4 (Indo-Pacific 4) cooperation for regional and global security.
The Indo-Pacific is a recent concept that encompasses two oceans and three of the most populous countries in the world: India, China, and Indonesia. The region contains numerous regional hotspots, including territorial disputes in the South China Sea and around Taiwan; nuclear proliferation crises in Iran and North Korea; endemic piracy around the Horn of Africa, the Gulf of Aden, and multiple island archipelagos; and, finally, environmental security issues. Deficits in regulation and multilateralism reinforce regional uncertainty and instability.
China’s rise has profoundly altered the international balance of power. Beijing has adopted a more openly confrontational stance toward international law, and its diplomacy is aggressive. During the past two decades, military spending in the Indo-Pacific has increased by 140 percent, which is more than in other regions. China and South Korea account for some of the largest increases. The Indo-Pacific includes seven of the world’s 10 largest defense budgets.
This rearmament is primarily quantitative, especially in Southeast Asia. However, technological improvements accompany it, such as the production of heavier, more versatile vessels and a drive for innovation in all areas, including drones, submarines, and ship automation. Submarines have become essential to control and master of maritime areas, particularly between China and the United States.
With the dual objective of controlling the maritime entry and exit points in the South China Sea and defending its strategic interests worldwide, China aims for strategic parity with the US Navy. Its acquisition program includes all types of navy and dual-use vessels. China’s navy has surpassed the US Navy in terms of the number of vessels, but the United States maintains superior power with more capital ships. The US has redeployed part of its naval forces to the Indo-Pacific to address the challenges arising from the growing Chinese navy. The two navies are now facing each other in several regions in the Indo-Pacific. The Taiwan (and Taiwan Strait) situation crystallizes tensions, but it is only one aspect of a larger strategic competition for influence and control.
The militarization of the seas, from techno-guerrillas to ballistic proliferation, raises the question of the readiness and resilience of NATO’s nations to manage the rapidly evolving challenges.
France is the only European resident power with a significant territorial Indo-Pacific presence. It enjoys sovereign rights in the region: 1.8 million citizens inhabit its territories, which generate 90 percent of France’s exclusive economic zones. Including maritime borders, France is the second-largest country in the world. In the Indo-Pacific, it has stationed 7,000 military personnel in the French territories Réunion, New Caledonia, and Tahiti. These territories give Paris direct responsibility for regional security and stability.
France’s comprehensive Indo-Pacific strategy focuses on ensuring maritime security, maintaining a rules-based international order, defending freedom of navigation, and strengthening partnerships. France is deeply committed to maintaining an international order based on respect for law and multilateralism, which unrestrained power dynamics increasingly undermine. Paris has deepened its cooperation on maritime security and defense technology with the members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. As France is committed to European strategic autonomy, it understands the need for Indo-Pacific countries to protect their sovereignty from the consequences of strategic competition. US-Chinese competition in areas such as AI, 5G technology, and semiconductor manufacturing forces countries to navigate alignment positions while honoring commitments to allies and partners and developing national technological capacities.
Should NATO get involved in the region? Its July 2024 summit demonstrated growing convergence with the IP4 nations in addressing challenges to maintain regional stability and security. Furthermore, the NATO 2022 Strategic Concept referred to the Indo-Pacific as “important for NATO, given that developments in that region can directly affect Euro-Atlantic security.” [1]
The deployment of North Korean soldiers to support Russia’s war in Ukraine confirms that the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theaters are connected. Strategic cooperation between Iran, China, and Russia, including direct military and economic support for Russia, has raised concerns among EU and NATO nations about the threats emerging from stronger and more comprehensive links between strategic competitors. IP4 countries have demonstrated their commitment to Euro-Atlantic security through military and economic aid to Ukraine, condemnation of Russia’s war, and sanctions against Russia. The Indo-Pacific has become a necessary and complementary part of Euro-Atlantic security.
In response, NATO and IP4 countries have proposed several initiatives to consolidate their links and improve coordination, particularly through individually tailored partnership programs (ITPPs) and four flagship projects focused on assisting Ukraine with military healthcare and cyber defense, countering disinformation, and improving technology such as AI. In March 2024, NATO and IP4 created an AI expert group to advance the alliance’s flagship projects for enhancing cooperation with IP4 nations.
However, NATO does not have a mandate to engage in the Indo-Pacific. For France, doing so could lead to direct military competition with China. Most regional countries remain economically dependent on China and fear the economic consequences of such confrontation. France considers China a competitor and not an enemy, which also reflects the EU’s China policy.
Nonetheless, the Indo-Pacific is a theater of territorial conflicts that could escalate without proper management and set off crises or military confrontations with major consequences for all. The stakes are multiple: maintaining a free and open maritime space; protecting trade routes from threats such as piracy, trafficking, and restrictions on freedom of navigation; and containing aggressive Chinese actions and use of denial capabilities that increase the risks of gray-zone confrontation or war.
NATO and IP4 countries also need to address multidimensional security challenges due to technological asymmetries. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore are pioneers in technology infrastructure and innovation, such as robotics and automation. At the same time, Indo-Pacific countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia struggle with basic access to high-speed internet and affordable devices. Such disparities exacerbate economic inequality between nations and generate higher tensions.
Another major challenge is the tyranny of distance, in the words of the former French chief of the navy, Admiral Pierre Vandier who is now Supreme Allied Commander Transformation. How can NATO and IP4 ensure maritime security and stability across the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific with a limited number of naval assets available to traverse great distances in the event of escalation and military conflict? And how can states prevent escalation and conflict while preparing to win wars?
Until now, Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific cooperation has occurred between selected NATO and IP4 states, such as the EU and Japan and the EU and South Korea, and also in multiple multilateral organizations, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) security fora or the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue. Diverse dialogue settings create a need to secure coherence across different settings while taking into account each country’s position and strategic interests by defining common interests before engaging separately in regional dialogues.
Closer cooperation on maritime security also requires better coordination between navies and coast guards. Improving coordination involves improving maritime awareness through maritime and space surveillance. NATO and IP4 need to build and share a common operational picture with a foundation of information- and data-sharing. However, improved mutual understanding of national challenges is a precondition of reaching this goal. Moreover, a permanent conventional naval presence, with European navies and NATO is necessary to deter hostile actions by strategic competitors. The following recommendations can help reach this goal:
- NATO could be a model for interoperability and coordination of forces across the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theaters; the alliance is in a phase of rebuilding its command and control, integrating the latest technologies, such as AI, for better and quicker decision-making. It could share these lessons with IP4 partners.
- Existing military exercises and other trainings that involve the United States and IP4 partner countries could include NATO and other European members.
As an example of this second recommendation, the 2024 Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise between the navies of numerous Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific allied and partner countries involved stronger European contributions than usual, such as a French multipurpose Aquitaine class frigate rather than a surveillance frigate and several German and Italian navy vessels. The French aircraft carrier is scheduled for deployment in the Indo-Pacific in 2025 and is just one example of a steadily growing European maritime Indo-Pacific presence. This all occurred after, at France’s initiative, the EU adopted a Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, which announced the union’s regional interests for the first time in 2021.
The demonstration of a stronger commitment from EU and NATO nations to the Indo-Pacific is accompanied by the challenge to define a common strategy and coordinate forces that would be sustainable if competition turns into confrontation. Such a confrontation would test the credibility of NATO and its partners’ force postures.
(2025/03/21)