Australia's Reaction to the US Presidential Election
Republican nominee Donald Trump emerged victorious in the November 5 US presidential election, sweeping all seven battleground states and defeating Democratic contender Kamala Harris. Although the presidential race had been projected to be very close, the Republican Party rode a red wave to achieve a "trifecta," winning majorities in the House and Senate as well.
Australia's response to Trump's return to power was notably calmer than following his first-term victory in 2016. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong of the Labor government both congratulated Trump via social media platform X, emphasizing that the US-Australia partnership remains solid.[1]
Following the election, Albanese spoke with President-elect Trump on the phone for 10 minutes and described the conversation as a "very good" start to the relationship.[2] Trump reportedly indicated that Washington and Canberra "are going to be perfect friends."[3] This is in stark contrast to the 2016 phone call between then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Trump, which ended awkwardly. [4] The initial contact between Albanese and Trump certainly appears to have been more positive.
After Trump's 2016 win, many in Australia pointed to the need to develop a Plan B for national defense that was not dependent on the alliance with the United States. This time, though, there have been no signs of such debate resurfacing. This may in part be because elements of Plan B (or perhaps more accurately described as Plan A' that assumes the alliance will continue) have already been implemented, such as significant increases in defense spending, the acquisition of long-range missiles, and steps to introduce nuclear-powered submarines.[5] These achievements may have adequately prepared Australia for Trump 2.0.
In a post-election survey, 40% of Australians polled said that Trump's win would be bad for their country.[6] This is a significant percentage but is still 18 points lower than the figure from a similar poll conducted after the 2016 election.[7] This suggests that Australians feel more confident, having successfully navigated Trump's first term, and that they have become more accustomed to the polarized and inward focus of US politics. Some Australian conservatives also believe that Trump's presidential experience and right-wing policies make him preferable to Kamala Harris—who lacks such experience and advocates left-leaning policies—particularly in confronting China.[8]
Concerns regarding AUKUS
Despite such relatively positive early signals, Trump's unpredictability remains a major concern for Australia. A key point of worry is the fate of a plan to acquire a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines as a pillar of the AUKUS partnership among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Republican Party had advocated prioritizing production for domestic use and was hesitant to provide such submarines to Australia. Congress conditionally approved the transfer in December 2023, but skepticism remains strong in the United States.[9]
Vice President-elect JD Vance has been quoted as saying that he is "a fan of AUKUS,"[10]but whether Trump himself supports the partnership is unknown. In fact, it is unclear how much interest he has in this issue.
One point of reassurance for Australia, though, is that Trump's appointments for key cabinet posts, such as secretary of state and secretary of defense, are known to be hardliners on China. In addition to providing nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, AUKUS will promote cooperation in the development of advanced technology through the integration of the three countries' defense industrial bases. The strategic value of AUKUS is unlikely to waver as long as Trump maintains or reinforces the Biden administration's strong stance against China.
For Australia to possess nuclear submarines and play a larger role in its own defense and the containment of China would, moreover, be in line with Trump's push for allies to spend more. Australia has already committed to paying US$3 billion to strengthen the US nuclear submarine production line, and this will also appeal to Trump's priorities.
That said, one cannot rule out the possibility that Trump will suddenly have a change of heart and scrap the submarine deal. One big difference from 2016 is that the Australian government is no longer a conservative coalition but is led by Labor. Albanese and Wong belong to the party's left faction and were both critical of Trump when they were in the opposition.[11]
Former prime minister and currently ambassador to the United States, Kevin Rudd, has in the past been scathingly critical of Trump, calling him a "traitor to the West" and "the most destructive president in history."[12] Those comments, posted on X, have been deleted following the election, but it remains to be seen how effectively Albanese's Labor government can build a relationship of trust with the Trump White House.
Implications for Foreign and Domestic Policy
The impact of Trump's return extends beyond AUKUS. The incoming administration's foreign policy agenda—imposing high tariffs on China and other countries, neglecting climate measures, and reducing aid to Ukraine—is completely at odds with the Labor government's policies. Trade accounts for 45% of GDP and supports one in five jobs in Australia, so the country has a vital interest in upholding a free-trade system. Australia's economic interests might thus be more aligned with those of China than the United States.[13]
Australia, too, has had its share of conservative climate deniers who deemed climate change to be "exaggerated." Such views, though, are a thing of the past—at least among politicians—and policies aimed at achieving net-zero emissions today enjoy broad support. Tackling climate change is also key to restructuring Australia's export-dependent economy and utilizing important domestic resources to bolster domestic manufacturing.[14]
Still, backlash against excessive political correctness and identity politics has been growing year by year in Australia.[15] This mirrors trends in the United States, where discontent with economic issues and the liberal policies of the Democratic Party are said to have contributed to Republican gains.[16] Such conservative backlash could gain momentum in Australia as well.
The most recent results of an annual opinion poll show that the share of Australians who believe there are "too many immigrants" increased from 33% to 49%. The antagonism is driven mainly by rising housing costs and other economic issues, but there has also been growing resentment against Muslim and Jewish immigrants, raising concerns that Australia's multicultural society could be undermined.[17] These domestic developments, alongside those in security and foreign policy, warrant close attention going forward.
(2024/12/16)
Notes
- 1 Anthony Albanese, "Congratulations to President Donald Trump on his election victory"; Senator Penny Wong, "Congratulations US President Donald Trump on your election victory."
- 2 Sam McKeith, "Australia PM Albanese says relationship with Trump off to 'very good' start", Reuters, November 17, 2024.
- 3 Andrew Clennell and Oscar Godsell, "'We are going to be perfect friends': Inside Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's phone call with President-elect Donald Trump", Skynews, November 10, 2024.
- 4 Greg Jaffe and Joshua Partlow, "Trump phone calls signals a new transactional approach to allies and neighbors", The Washington Post, February 2, 2017.
- 5 Regarding Australia's national defense Plan B, see, for example, Paul Dibb, "Dangerous platitudes about Trump," Strategist, November 17, 2016; Peter Jennings, "Trump means we need a 'Plan B' for Defence", Strategist, July 21, 2018; Hugh White, How to Defend Australia, La Trobe University Press, 2019.
- 6 David Crowe, "Fear of a Trump planet: Poll reveals Australia on edge after US result", The Sydney Morning Herald, November 10, 2024.
- 7 Matt Wade and Sarah Danckert, "Ipsos Poll Shows What Australians Feel about President Donald Trump", The Sydney Morning Herald, November 11, 2016.
- 8 Greg Sheridan, "A Trump victory will be the better outcome for Australia", The Australian, November 5, 2024.
- 9 "Navy Virginia-Class Submarine Program and AUKUS Submarine (Pillar 1) Project: Background and Issues for Congress", Congressional Research Service, October 10, 2024.
- 10 Michael Fullilove, "How Australia should deal with Trump", Lowy Institute, August 2024.
- 11 Paul Daley, "A second Trump presidency would put Australia on a collision course with the US", The Guardian, November 4, 2024.
- 12 Michael E. Miller, "With Trump's win, Australia worries AUKUS may come under new scrutiny", The Washington Post, November 8, 2024.
- 13 Geoff Chambers, "Xi Jinping moves to lock-in Anthony Albanese on trade at G20", The Australian, November 19, 2024.
- 14 "Treasury, Australia, "Future Made in Australia: National Interest Framework supporting paper", May 14, 2024.
- 15 See, for example, Peter Quarry, "Political correctness is too much for the 'exhausted majority'", Australian Financial Review, November 23, 2023.
- 16 Jennifer Hewett, "Trump turns the tables on identity politics", Australian Financial Review, November 8, 2024.
- 17 Natassia Chrysanthos, "The issue dividing Australians more than ever", The Sydney Morning Herald, November 19, 2024.