The Hamas-Israel Conflict: How to Resolve a "Battle without Winners"?

As of November 27, over 15,000 Palestinians and 1,200 Israelis have been killed in the Palestinian Gaza Strip and Israel due to Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on October 7 and subsequent counterattacks by Israel[1]. This conflict is so unusual and serious[2] that not only will there be no winner, but it has the potential to divide the world. Why is this battle unusual and serious, and why has this situation arisen? In this article, I will examine the current situation and its background, touching upon the reactions of Middle East countries, as well as discuss measures for resolution.

An Unusual and Serious Conflict

The current fighting between Hamas and Israel, which began with an attack by Hamas on October 7, is beyond what can be described as ordinary.

First, a large-scale attack was carried out in a short period, causing excessive damage. In the first six days, the Israeli military dropped 6,000 bombs, more than the U.S.-led coalition dropped in any month of fighting against the Islamic State (IS)[3]. In less than a month, more than 10,000 people died in Gaza and Israel combined. As mentioned at the beginning, over 15,000 Palestinians have been killed, more than 36,000 others injured[4], and an estimated 1.5 million displaced. In terms of medical infrastructure, 40% of hospitals and 71% of clinics are closed[5]. More than 280,000 people have lost their homes in Gaza[6]. Philippe Lazarini, Executive Director of UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), has claimed that around 70% of the dead in Gaza are women and children, and that they are not just “collateral damage”[7]. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed his strong concern over the outbreak of a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, calling it an "unprecedented avalanche of human suffering”[8].

Second, while the international community is highly concerned, Israel is conducting intensive fire on public facilities and homes in Gaza without hesitating over civilian victims[9], and the United States, the European Union and other countries initially expressed their unconditional support for Israel[10]. In these circumstances, Israeli settlers have been committing violence against Palestinians and setting fire to houses, but in many cases these criminal acts have been tacitly tolerated and have not been stopped or curbed.

Third, the fighting between Hamas and Israel has destabilized not only Gaza and Israel, but also the surrounding region and the international community at large[11]. The conflict that initially erupted between Israel and Gaza Strip has spread to the Palestinian West Bank, where Israeli forces have carried out attacks on Palestinians, resulting in deaths and injuries[12]. Hezbollah in Lebanon[13] and the Houthis in Yemen have announced counterattacks against Israel, and the fighting may spread to other areas[14]. In the Middle East and Africa, demonstrations against Israel have erupted in many places[15]. In the U.S. and U.K., in addition to protests against Israel, persecution against Jews has occurred, leading to school closures at some U.S. universities[16].

The clashes between Hamas and Israel have already caused irreparable human and material damage in Gaza, but they have also created a decisive division in the relationship between Israel and its neighbors, as well as between the West and the rest of the world[17]. Unless the situation is quickly brought under control, this incident could have serious repercussions for the world.

Background to the current fighting

It is believed that behind the Hamas attack was a sense of crisis that Palestine would be left behind as “de-escalation” progressed between Israel and major Middle East countries[18]. Traditionally, the issue of Israeli settlement in Palestine was an issue for the entire Middle East, with Middle Eastern countries jointly supporting the Palestinian position and opposing Israeli settlement. However, with the Abraham Accords, more countries are recognizing Israel, and with the improvement of relations between major Middle Eastern countries and Israel, Middle Eastern countries have begun to lose their interest in the Palestinian issue.

Under such circumstances, Jewish settlement has progressed in the West Bank, and Israeli settlements in Palestine have expanded in a manner that far exceeds international agreements, and personal movement has been restricted by the separation wall constructed by Israel[19] (see figure below). Palestinian homes and land are unilaterally destroyed and confiscated by Israel, Palestinians who protest are detained, and even children are shot dead. In 2022, 44 Palestinian children were killed, and in 2023 (before the Hamas attack on October 7), 96 children were killed in confrontations with Israeli forces and settlers[20]. In addition, Israeli settlers have caused harassment and violence, such as breaking the windows of houses, but the authorities have tolerated these acts without any crack down. In June 2023, 310 cases of Israeli settlers setting fire to Palestinian homes, mosques, and schools were recorded in just one week[21]. Gaza has been under Israeli siege for 16 years, restricting the free movement of people and goods, with 65% of the population living below the poverty line, 63% suffering from food insecurity, and Gaza's economy in a state of "near-collapse"[22].

Although Hamas has taken the political leadership in Gaza, it has been unable to provide adequate services to the Gazan people under these oppressive conditions, and Gazans have increasingly become dissatisfied with Hamas[23]. Both moderate methods of protest against Israeli settlements and violence went unheeded, and life for the people of Gaza has become increasingly unbearable. At the same time, Middle Eastern countries were losing interest in the Palestinian issue. Gaza has long been described as a "prison without a ceiling," and the people are literally under extreme pressure both physically and mentally. Feeling that there was no way out of the situation if it continued without change, Hamas may believe that there are no options other than to act aggressively[24].

Israel's domestic situation

The political situation in Israel since the Hamas attack suggests that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had no option but to take hardline measures. Israelis living near Palestine have long suffered from attacks from across the border, and they have felt that their lives are threatened. There was even a plan to expel the residents of Gaza to Egypt[25].

The October 7 attack by Hamas, which was carried out on the last day of Israel's long holidays, killed 700 people on the Israeli side alone[26] and included brutal acts, such as kidnapping and murder. Criticism of the Netanyahu administration increased for its failure to prevent the attack[27]. Originally, Hamas is said to have been fostered by Israel as a counterbalance to the Palestinian Authority (PA)[28], which leads in the West Bank. However, support for Netanyahu has plummeted[29] due in part to criticism over this policy. At the same time, conservatives who advocate hardline policies toward Palestine are becoming more vocal in Israel, and domestic media coverage is dominated by reports that emphasize the brutality of attacks by Hamas[30]. Netanyahu described the Hamas attacks as an "existential challenge". He is now in an environment where he believed hardline measures are indispensable. Support for this idea by the U.S. and other countries serves as a factor in bolstering his confidence in this idea.

Looking at the developments since October 7, we can see the gap in perceptions between the Palestinian and Israeli sides, with not only the Palestinians, but the Israelis calling the other side’s attack "ethnic cleansing"[31].

Reactions from Middle Eastern Countries

Since the military clashes, demonstrations have taken place in Middle Eastern countries against Israel's inhumane attack on Gaza and Western countries' support for Israel. South American countries, such as Bolivia, Chile and Colombia, have taken actions such as breaking diplomatic relations with Israel and recalling their ambassadors[32]. In the U.S. and the U.K., there have been protests against media, such as spray painting the facilities of the BBC, Britain’s main media outlet, in protest that their coverage is biased in favor of Israel[33]. There has also been increasing cases of slander and defamation against Jews, which forced some universities to suspend classes temporarily to avoid clashes[34].

Of particular interest in this context is the trend of public opinion in Middle Eastern countries. According to a survey by Arab Barometer, many people in the Middle East do not unilaterally condemn Israel's inhumane attacks, nor are they inciting military aggression against Israel. Instead, they criticize Hamas' inhumane attacks targeting civilians as well, and are more likely to favor a ceasefire[35]. Considering that many in Israel consider the stance of Hamas and ordinary Palestinians to be the same, and support armed attacks that cause civilian victims in Gaza, Middle Eastern countries are calmly and accurately assessing the current situation, and seeking a moderate and realistic solution.

In response to this trend in public opinion, the leaders of Middle Eastern governments, who have been working to improve relations with Israel, are now changing to take more balanced positions[36].

A path forward

The clashes between Hamas and Israel are a battle that will force everyone, including Hamas and Israel, as well as the Western countries that support Israel, into the category of "losers", and produce nothing[37]. The human and physical damage in Gaza has already reached an extraordinary level, but even if Israel were to take control of Gaza militarily, it would lose the trust that Israel and the West have built in the surrounding region and the international community as a whole[38]. The magnitude of the loss would be known in later years. We must take immediate action to minimize such damage now.

First, we should urge Israel to stop its military attacks and proceed to a ceasefire. Significant human and material damage has already occurred. Hamas and ordinary Palestinians are not the same, and indiscriminate attacks on ordinary citizens should not be tolerated under any circumstances. In addition, suppression by force breeds hatred, which in turn creates the basis for further armed attacks. It must be understood that changing the status quo by relying on force will cause more harm than good in the long run.

Second, attention should be paid to the Palestinian issue that lies behind the current Hamas attack on Israel, and a fundamental solution should be sought. The Palestinian people have suffered from illegal settlement that goes beyond international agreements, the expropriation of their homes and land, and have been subjected to detention, armed intimidation, and attacks in response to their nonviolent protests. They have suffered from violence and harassment by settlers. They have been left in a situation where they have neither legal means to protect themselves, nor the “rule of law”. Surrounded by walls, the free movement of people and goods is obstructed, the economy is on the verge of stalling, and there is no way out of poverty. Although neighboring countries and the international community have been aware of this situation, they continued to neglect it for a long time. While we should stop using force to change the status quo[39], we should understand that we have been forced into a situation where there is no other way to change the status quo. We should realize a "two-state coexistence"[40] so that both the Israeli and Palestinian peoples can live as human beings. We should also recognize the economic and social conditions of the people of Gaza and the West Bank, and help the Palestinian people to free themselves from political, economic and social threats, such as poverty and unemployment.

Third, we should act to create a space to explore a solution by properly understanding the current situation in Gaza and Israel, as well as its historical background. Acts of exclusion against Jews, Palestinians, and Muslims complicate the process of finding a calm solution. As the Arab Barometer indicates, we should emulate the correct perception of facts and calm judgment in Middle Eastern countries. To this end, the role played by the media and academics familiar with Palestinian-Israeli issues is enormously important.

Finally, I would like to mention the importance of people, not only in the Middle East but also globally, taking an interest in the clashes currently taking place in Gaza and Palestine and raising their voices. Governments in the Middle East have changed their positions on the Gaza issue in response to the voices of their own people. Countries outside the Middle East, including those in South America, have also expressed their own opinions in response to the seriousness of this situation. Such voices will create international public opinion and become a force to change the behavior of each country. At the United Nations, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was accused by Israel of "misguided views" and was asked to resign[41]. Furthermore, the head of the Office of UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in New York resigned, disappointed by the current situation in Gaza. The UN Security Council is struggling to find an effective solution now that it has become difficult to build a consensus among major powers. However, the UN consists of not only the Security Council but also the General Assembly, where each country can express its views and efforts can be made to build a consensus. The UN's ability to shape public opinion and the normative power of the international community remains effective, and in order to make the most of this ability, it is important for each individual and each country to speak out and find a desirable solution.

The clash between Hamas and Israel has taken a serious turn, but there is still room to move in a better direction. No effort should be spared to achieve this goal.

This paper was originally written based on data available as of November 5, 2023, and updated on November 29, 2023.
The views expressed in this paper are the author's own and not the official views of his organization.

(2023/12/13)