This project was designed to upgrade the macroeconomic forecasting skills of Laotian policymakers, who have little experience with a market economy, while drawing on the experience of Malaysia, a neighbor that is a forerunner in economic development. Focusing on policymakers at the National Economic Research Institute, which was established under the Committee for Planning and Investment to handle such policy tasks as the drafting of five-year economic plans for Laos, the project members engaged in a variety of activities over a three-year period. They participated in workshops on economic forecasting models and field trips and conducted economic observation activities, including consumer-sentiment and business-trend surveys.
In fiscal 2002, the first year, macroeconomic workshops on surveying, forecasting, and monitoring were held in Vientiane over a five-day period for a group of 25 policymakers and researchers at the National Economic Research Institute, the Bank of the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Ministry of Finance, the National Statistical Centre, and other organizations. In fiscal 2003, a small group of policymakers and researchers, most of whom had taken part in the previous year's activities, received one month of economic survey training in Kuala Lumpur under experts at the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research and undertook five months of practice in Laos.
This year, the last in the project, researchers at the National Economic Research Institute and others made use of the skills they had acquired in quarterly surveys of business outlook and consumer sentiment and they compiled quarterly reports on their findings. These surveys, which sought to acquaint the researchers with macroeconomic management activities, were conducted under the guidance of Malaysian experts. In addition, as a preparatory step for the creation of a macroeconomic monitoring unit under the State Planning Committee, six members of the committee and the central bank made a visit to Malaysia, where they observed the macroeconomic management setup and exchanged information with Malaysian policymakers.
By means of these activities, Laotian policymakers and researchers were able to familiarize themselves with real life skills and know-how in surveying, analysis, forecasting, monitoring, and other aspects of macroeconomic management. As a result of the project, a solid start has been made in undertaking regular quarterly consumer sentiment and business-trend surveys. The project also established a foothold for the formation of a network for building the human-resource foundation required for creating and operating a macroeconomic management organ in Laos. In such ways the project made meaningful contributions to getting macroeconomic forecasting and monitoring on track in that country.