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Poll Tests if Premier is Independent Leader or U.S. Puppet
By Tim Shorrock
WASHINGTON, Oct 22 - On Nov. 9, Japan faces a general election for its powerful Lower House in which foreign policy will play a major role. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) hopes to capitalise on public opposition to the recent decision by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party to send a small squad of Self-Defence Forces to Iraq and provide 1.5 billion U.S. dollars in reconstruction money to the war-torn country. Many DPJ candidates believe that the SDF deployment is unconstitutional and could involve Japan in a foreign war for the first time since World War II ended in 1945. In Hokkaido, where the SDF's 7th Infantry Division is based, DPP candidate Chiyomi Kobayashi is running on an anti-war platform, the 'Asahi Shimbun' newspaper reported this week. Pointing out that more than 100 soldiers have been killed in Iraq since U.S. President George W Bush announced the end of major fighting, Kobayashi argued that "casualties among SDF troops sent there could occur". The 7th Infantry was previously sent on peacekeeping missions to the Golan Heights and East Timor. DPJ leader Naoto Kan, who is also planning to make a major issue out of Japan's economy, says November's vote will be "the first real election in 10 years to decide who should govern". The LDP, meanwhile, is trumpeting Japan's alliance with the United States, its role in the multilateral talks to defuse the nuclear crisis with North Korea, and Tokyo's importance to regional trade and economic growth as examples of Koizumi's growing stature as a diplomat. By retaining Koizumi, who enjoys a 50 percent approval rating, the party argues that Japan will continue its tough policies towards North Korea, which admitted last year to kidnapping over a dozen Japanese nationals, and play a stabilising role in both the Asia-Pacific region and the United Nations. Koizumi himself sought maximum exposure during Bush's brief stopover in Tokyo ahead of the APEC summit Oct 20-21, playing up their mutual camaraderie and joint commitment to fighting international terrorism. Bush called Koizumi "a good friend, a very strong leader" and said the "relationship between Japan and the United States is very good." Koizumi was exuberant, called their discussions "very frank, meaningful, interesting, fantastic". Internationally, however, there is considerable debate about whether Koizumi's diplomacy marks a departure from the past or is simply a rehash of past Japanese practices of following the lead of Uncle Sam wherever he goes. "It seems that he does not follow the traditional and somewhat caricatured pattern of a Japanese prime minister who can only act after joint foreign pressure," said Akihiko Tanaka, director of the Institute of Oriental Culture at the University of Tokyo. Koizumi can act with clarity and "doesn't equivocate" when faced with a crisis, Tanaka told a seminar here in October on Japan's foreign policy sponsored by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA. Steven Clemons, executive vice president of the New America Foundation and an observer of U.S.-Japan relations, disagreed with Tanaka's thesis. "When (U.S. Assistant Secretary of State) Richard Armitage said 'show the flag,' Koizumi raised it as fast as he could," he said. Koizumi, he added, has shown signs of being "highly sycophantic and obsequious" toward the United States. Tanaka offered two examples in his positive portrait of Koizumi: the actions the prime minister took immediately after Sep. 11, and his diplomatic overtures to North Korea. At Bush's request following the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, said Tanaka, Koizumi's government quickly agreed to send Japanese Aegis warships to the Arabian Sea to support Bush's military actions against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Koizumi, Tanaka added, also made a "pro-active" decision in 2001 to visit Pyongyang with the intention of reaching a sweeping new agreement with North Korea's Kim Jong Il. But Tanaka said Koizumi's policies in the Middle East show the limits of Japan's pro-U.S. foreign policy. "It was unprecedented for Japan to operate ships on distant seas," he said. On the other hand, "those missions are not combat duties and are limited to gas stations." Similarly, the non-combat Japanese troops that will be sent to Iraq by the end of the year will be for "logistic and reconstruction and humanitarian" duties. However, Tanaka believes that Koizumi's diplomatic initiative in Korea and his unequivocal stand that no progress will be made with the Kim regime in Pyongyang until the question of the abductions are settled underscores his decisiveness. But voters may be less impressed with his skills in fighting off entrenched economic interests within his bureaucracy. Tanaka noted that many of Koizumi's trade initiatives in Asia have not gone anywhere because of stiff opposition from the LDP, particularly the protected agriculture sector. "It is bad for the Japanese to have a prime minister who is not good at preparing the groundwork for long-term policies," he said. Clemons countered that Koizumi's actions after Sep. 11 were politically calculated. Koizumi "raced towards" Sep. 11 "to distract Japan from the structural problems of its economy," he said. Under Koizumi, Clemons argued, Japan has ceded the "high ground" it once held in the United Nations when "Mother Teresa-types" such at Sadako Ogata served in high-ranking positions and Japan frequently took the lead on issues concerning global governance. Instead, during the emotional debate prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Koizumi read a statement "that could have been written" by a Japan specialist at the National Security Council, he said. "There was no sense Japan had gone through its own internal calculations of national interest and to what degree it would support the United States and under what conditions," continued Clemons. Essentially, under Koizumi, Japanese foreign policy "has morphed" and "imbedded itself" into the unilateralist policies of the Bush administration. In doing so, he said, "Koizumi is playing with fire." Rather than send troops or reconstruction money into a conflict that may be escalating and is facing growing criticism in the United States, Japan could make a greater contribution by revving up its economy through economic reform so the United States can "stop being the consumer of last resort," Clemons said. Clemons' comments seemed to be underscored Monday by reports from Bangkok, where Bush and Koizumi gathered with other leaders from the Asia-Pacific at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit in talks dominated by Bush's anti-terrorism agenda. Often, Koizumi was left largely to follow the U.S. lead instead of projecting a Japanese position. In any case, Kan, the opposition's candidate for prime minister, is an "extremely articulate and very effective debater and could outperform Koizumi on TV," concluded Tanaka. "It will be a most interesting election." (Inter Press Service) |
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