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Strengthening the Macroeconomic Forecasting Capability in Azerbaijan
9,000,000 yen [Grant Project]
Khazar University, Center for Economic and Business Research and Education (CEBRE/Azerbaijan)
Macroeconomic trend analysis, projection and monitoring is not sufficiently carried out in Azerbaijan, which is said to result in government-led monitoring that does not capture accurate state of actual economy. In order to have objective understanding of the economic status, a role played by private-sector research institutions is important, and development of human resources to that end is required. The project aims to strengthen capacity building in macroeconomic analysis in Azerbaijan by helping CEBRE researchers collect basic macroeconomic data and develop a proper macroeconomic forecasting model for the Azerbaijan economy based on experience in East Asia.
In the final year of the project, following activities are planned.
- Research Activities (May 2007-January 2008, Baku)
(1) Using methodologies acquired in the first and the second year of the project, the CABRE researchers will observe and analyze the state of Azerbaijan economy.
(2) Short-term economic surveillance and building of medium-term macroeconomic forecasting model that started last year will continue. Seeking advice from a Korean expert who will be invited for a week to Baku, the mid-term model will be completed.
(3) The results of above steps will be publicized extensively in domestic and international specialty journals.
- Study Trip (July 2007, 4 days, Seoul)
For the purpose of learning from South Korean experiences in forecasting model development and macroeconomic monitoring, two Azerbaijani researchers will visit to observe and receive training on the mid-term macroeconomic projection model of Korea Development Institute.
- Round-table Conference and Final Presentation (December 2007 and February 2007, Baku)
(1) Round-table Conference (1 day, 25 participants): Toward the completion of the mid-term macroeconomic forecasting model, mainly Azerbaijani economists will run a check and make confirmation.
(2) Final Presentation (1 day, 40 participants): Government officials and representatives from international bodies will be invited and informed of the results of three-year study.
(Final year of a 3-year project)
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